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 There
have been many articles written about programme delays
and project failures. Large infrastructure projects, for
example, in the oil and gas, aerospace and construction
industry tend to be the most complex projects undertaken
with multiple stakeholders involved. These project
failures have attracted news headlines as they involve
governments, regulatory agencies and subcontractors in
different countries.
The result of these delays and failures are sometimes
catastrophic to all parties involved. Penalties are
incurred, increase in cost coupled with loss in revenue
also increases the companies’ exposure financially. The
companies’ share price goes down, financial losses are
made and reputations are tarnished.
Success vs. Failure
An important reason for investigating success versus
failure is the potential for developing a useful
methodology that can be used by future projects to
achieve project success. Many of the variables which
might separate the successful projects from the failed
ones are within the control of the organisation.
Knowledge of what these variables are and their relative
importance would lead to corrective action to improve
the way organisations develop and launch new projects.
What are the criteria used to measure the success of
a project? Project success is based on set objectives,
achieved milestones and perceptions of success by both
the stakeholders involved (government, regulatory
agencies, public/ private companies and third party
subcontractors) and personnel involved in carrying out
the work.
The success factors are usually listed as either very
general factors or very specific factors affecting only
a particular project. However, lacking a comprehensive
list makes it difficult, not only for project managers,
but also for researchers to evaluate projects based on
these factors. The project criteria need to be
determined at beginning of the project. The Èpeus team’s
project success criteria include the ability to manage
time, cost, quality, client involvement, stakeholder
support, project personnel and technical objectives.
A project will have to combine all the different
project success criteria in order to be acclaimed as a
success. This is because if the project succeeds only in
terms of time and cost and does not succeed in quality,
the project cannot be said to be a success.
The project manager’s role is very difficult as
he/she is in the middle of conflicting priorities and
expectations of the stakeholders and personnel involved
in carrying out the work. Therefore, it is imperative
that before the project is being executed, all the
players buy into the objectives and milestones to
complete the project and meet the stakeholders’
specifications.
Critical Success Factors
The lesson learned from projects we have been
involved with can be applied to any project. The main
issues attributed to these project failures are:
- Poor project planning
- Lack of understanding of risk
and its impact on the dependencies in the project
- Different priorities and
cultures of stakeholders and internal project
teams
- Different locations of
project teams and equipment manufacture/ fabrication
Even today, many projects are still planned by paper
and pencil. Some project managers are using post-it
notes pinned on walls to estimate tasks, duration and
sequence of tasks. Engineers still think that planning
is a waste of time. It’s a required exercise to satisfy
the financial requirement s of the stakeholders.
Engineers just want to get on with the work and build
the best engineered equipment possible. They are not
concerned with cost and schedule.
Most project plans are scaled to fit schedules by
contract date. This is being determined by stakeholders
who pre-determine the completion date and assume the
project teams will be able to achieve the set date. The
assumption is made that by throwing more bodies on the
project will allow the project to be finished faster.
In most cases, the schedule is aggressive by nature
as late delivery past the contract date will incur
penalties. There’s nothing wrong in having an aggressive
schedule, however, the stakeholders need to know the
chances of hitting the aggressive schedule date.
Torp et al (2006), argue that ‘Identifying critical
success factors and potential pitfalls early enough
during the front-end assessment of projects is a vital
start for ensuring successful project completions’. The
Èpeus methodology identifies critical success factors by
using the right project management tools and technology
available today.
The Èpeus Methodology
We believe that the way forward is to use the
Programme Evaluation Review Technique (PERT) and tools
that can adequately model the full complexity of the
iterative design cycle on projects. PERT’s risk
analysis using the Monte Carlo technique helps the
project manager understand the most likely situation
with respect to a project schedule and costs. Simulation
using risk analysis tools determine the most accurate
information by taking uncertainty into account. The
uncertainty durations are calculated using a 3 point
estimate (min, most likely and max) and iteration uses
randomly selected values.
The resulting Monte Carlo chart shows the
distribution of all possible outcomes and most likely
(85% chance) completion date and costs based on the
project plan given. The Tornado chart shows the
sensitivity of each task in the project. The project
manager can then anticipate the risks and find ways of
reducing the impact of its occurrence on the project.
The Èpeus methodology uses PERT and its tools to
allow the project manager to show stakeholders and
project teams graphical representations of the critical
success factors and its impact on the dependencies that
are easy to understand. This allows the alignment of
clear objectives and deliverables by both external
stakeholders and internal personnel.
The stakeholders can then see the likelihood of
achieving the contract date and budget while the project
teams are aware of the biggest risks to the project and
how they can improve the project’s success. In an
aggressive schedule, the risks can be minimized by
mitigating the critical success factors with the biggest
impact to the project.
By identifying the critical success factors in the
planning process for a new project, project success can
be achieved! The Èpeus methodology also integrates our
internal database of lessons learned from previous
projects to mitigate the critical success factors and
achieve project success.
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